What Are Confidence Scores in Sports Betting? How BetBlum Rates Every Pick

Not all picks are created equal. Some bets have strong statistical support across multiple factors, while others are marginal. Confidence scores help you tell the difference.

What Is a Confidence Score?

A confidence score is a percentage (0-100%) that represents how strongly our model supports a particular pick. Higher scores mean more factors align in favor of the bet.

BetBlum rates every pick as:

• -HIGH (70%+): Strong alignment across multiple factors — projection well above/below line, good recent form, favorable matchup
• -MEDIUM (50-69%): Decent support but some mixed signals
• -LOW (<50%): Marginal or conflicting factors

How BetBlum Calculates Confidence

Our 15-layer prediction model evaluates each prop across factors including:

The confidence score aggregates how many of these factors support the pick and how strongly.

How to Use Confidence Scores

For Bet Selection

Focus on HIGH confidence picks. They have the most statistical backing and historically the highest hit rates.

For Bet Sizing

Use confidence to size your bets. Wager more on HIGH confidence, less on MEDIUM, and skip or bet minimally on LOW.

For Parlay Building

BetBlum's parlay builder shows combined confidence. Building parlays from HIGH confidence picks gives you the best chance of cashing.

Confidence vs. Expected Value

Confidence and EV are related but different. A pick can have HIGH confidence but low EV (if the odds already reflect the probability), or MEDIUM confidence with high EV (if the book has significantly mispriced it). The best bets are those with both high confidence AND high EV.

See confidence scores on every prop — start your free trial today.